Dramatic Changes in Admissions Trends Seen Through Early Results!! - 5 Years of School-Specific Early Data

Today, we will analyze the shifting admissions trends based on Early results.

With ED results released in mid-December and RD applications now completed, we will examine admissions trends by analyzing Early results.

You may have seen bits and pieces about Early trends through articles, CDS reports, or school websites. However, based on the data we have compiled, we will provide a more comprehensive analysis of Early admissions trends.

The students who applied this year will be in 12th grade in the 2024-2025 academic year and will be part of the Class of 2029.

Today's discussion will cover:

• The number of applicants

• The significance of being deferred

• Strategies universities are adopting to ensure diversity after the repeal of affirmative action.

Early admissions schools are broadly categorized into two groups:

1. Schools requiring SAT/ACT submission

2. Schools with a Test-Optional policy

We will examine how applicant numbers differ between these two categories.

Additionally, we will discuss what it means for students to be deferred from Early admission at different schools.

We have continuously addressed the issue of diversity following the repeal of affirmative action, and today, we will analyze its impact on Early admissions at the Top 20 universities. Excluding UC Berkeley and UCLA, which do not release data, we will cover the remaining 18 schools in groups of two.

• Schools highlighted in red maintain a Test-Optional policy.

• Schools highlighted in blue require the SAT/ACT.

The schools are introduced in the order of the latest US Rankings, but the order itself does not hold significant meaning.

Princeton is well-known for not disclosing much data.

The only available information is that in the 2019-2020 admissions cycle (Class of 2024), the Early acceptance rate was 15.82%.

Let’s look at MIT’s applicant numbers.

• For the Class of 2028 (2022-23 cycle), MIT reinstated the requirement for test scores.

• The number of applicants surged for the Class of 2025 (2020-21 cycle), when the pandemic hit, and MIT made test scores optional.

• Due to GPA inflation, many students had high GPAs but relatively weak SAT/ACT scores, leading to a significant increase in applicants.

• As a result, MIT’s Early Action acceptance rate declined.

However, when MIT reinstated standardized testing requirements for the Class of 2027, the number of applicants dropped significantly, and the acceptance rate stabilized at the high 5% range.

MIT’s Defer Policy

MIT defers a large number of students.

• Being deferred means that the school finds the applicant promising but wants to reevaluate them in the Regular Decision pool.

• However, MIT’s deferred applicants have a very low acceptance rate in Regular Decision.

How to Predict the Acceptance Rate for Deferred Students

To estimate the chances of a deferred applicant being accepted in the Regular round, consider the following:

• If the percentage of deferred students is similar to the Early acceptance rate, deferred students have a higher chance of getting in during Regular Decision.

• However, if the deferral rate is significantly higher than the Early acceptance rate, the chances of admission are low.

For example:

• If the Early acceptance rate is 20% but 80% of applicants are deferred, the probability of getting in through Regular Decision is low.

• If only 10% of applicants are deferred, the chances of admission in Regular Decision are higher.

You can predict your likelihood of admission by comparing a school’s deferral rate to its Early acceptance rate.

Ivy League Early Decision Data

Among the 8 Ivy League schools, the following universities have decided not to disclose their Class of 2029 Early Decision results:

• Harvard

• UPenn

• Cornell

• Princeton

A personal theory regarding Harvard’s decision: Harvard, as a leading private institution, faced heavy scrutiny due to affirmative action lawsuits. They likely chose not to release their admissions data to avoid further controversy.

Stanford does not disclose much data, so there is little to report.

Harvard reinstated the SAT/ACT requirement starting with the Class of 2029.

• After the pandemic, the number of applicants surged.

• However, with the reinstatement of test requirements, applications have slightly declined to an estimated 6,000–7,000 applicants.

• The acceptance rate is expected to remain similar to previous years.

Harvard’s Defer Policy

For the Class of 2028:

• 83.06% of Early applicants were deferred.

• However, the acceptance rate for deferred applicants was only 8.74%.

This means that getting into Harvard after being deferred is extremely difficult.

Caltech does not disclose admissions data.

• After a sharp increase in applicants for the Class of 2025 due to the pandemic, the numbers remained high until the Class of 2029, when Yale reinstated SAT/ACT requirements.

• Yale adopted a "Test-Flexible Policy", allowing AP/IB scores as an alternative.

• However, applicants were required to submit all their test scores, which may have deterred students with lower scores.

Yale & Affirmative Action

• In 2023, after the Supreme Court struck down affirmative action, Yale announced it would comply with the ruling.

• When affirmative action was in place, 34% of Yale's freshman class was Black/Hispanic.

• Without it, projections suggested that percentage could drop as low as 6%.

• To maintain diversity, Yale began focusing on socioeconomic factors instead of race.

How is Yale Maintaining Diversity?

• Low-income students are disproportionately Black/Hispanic.

• Instead of considering race, Yale prioritized low-income students in its selection process.

• The most effective way to achieve this? QuestBridge.

What is QuestBridge?

• QuestBridge is a nonprofit that helps low-income students attend college with full scholarships.

• Many universities participate, using QuestBridge to increase economic and racial diversity.

• Since QuestBridge selections occur in early December, those admissions are counted in Early Decision data.

Yale significantly increased its QuestBridge admits after affirmative action was struck down.

• Class of 2027: 66 QuestBridge admits

• Class of 2028: 72 QuestBridge admits

• Class of 2029: Back to 66 admits (likely a final adjusted number)

Since Duke continues to maintain a Test-Optional policy, the number of applicants for the Class of 2029 is significantly high. However, since the number of admitted students remains similar, the acceptance rate is decreasing.

Johns Hopkins University

Johns Hopkins is one of the schools that does not disclose much information. However, based on my analysis, the number of applicants likely increased, and the acceptance rate may have remained the same or declined compared to the Class of 2027.

• For the Class of 2029, JHU requires SAT/ACT scores.

• While the defer rate is not publicly available, based on my experience:

  • JHU tends to reject many applicants outright rather than defer them.

  • Therefore, if you receive a deferral from JHU, your chances of admission in the Regular round are not significantly lower.

Since Northwestern follows a Test-Optional policy, the number of applicants continues to increase, leading to a declining acceptance rate.

Significance of Northwestern’s Deferral

Northwestern has explicitly stated that they prefer to give a final decision (admit/deny) rather than defer.

• Because of this, Northwestern’s deferral carries some weight, meaning deferred students still have a reasonable chance in the Regular round.

UPenn is another school that does not disclose much data. However, due to its Test-Optional policy, the number of applicants has increased, and the acceptance rate is expected to be in the high 13% range.

• UPenn’s Defer Rate vs. Acceptance Rate

  • Since UPenn’s defer rate is very close to its acceptance rate, a deferral at UPenn holds significant meaning.

  • Unlike Harvard, deferred students at UPenn still have a good chance in the Regular round—so remain hopeful.

After reinstating SAT/ACT requirements, Cornell experienced a decline in the number of applicants.

• The acceptance rate is expected to be in the 20% range, suggesting a return to pre-pandemic trends.

Since UChicago does not disclose admissions data, we will skip this section.

At Brown:

• Under the Test-Optional policy, the number of applicants increased.

• However, after reinstating SAT/ACT requirements, the number of applicants decreased.

• Since the number of admitted students remains similar, the acceptance rate has increased.

Brown also heavily relies on QuestBridge.

• As mentioned earlier, QuestBridge allows universities to maintain diversity while selecting more low-income students.

• Another method Brown is using to ensure diversity is increasing admissions for First-Generation students.

• The number of QuestBridge admits at Brown continues to grow, further highlighting their commitment to diversity.

Columbia remains Test-Optional, and as a result, the number of applicants remains similar to last year.

Even after reinstating SAT/ACT requirements, the number of applicants remained steady.

• This is because Dartmouth has a very small student body, so test policy changes do not have a major impact on applicant numbers.

These universities have continued their Test-Optional policies, leading to:

• High numbers of applicants

• Lower acceptance rates compared to previous years

Regarding Deferred Applicants:

• Notre Dame and Vanderbilt have defer rates similar to their acceptance rates.

• Based on our analysis, Vanderbilt is a school where deferred students have a strong chance of receiving a positive outcome in the Regular round.

Final Conclusions

1. Schools requiring SAT/ACT saw a decline in Early applicants.

2. Test-Optional schools saw an increase in Early applicants, causing slight declines in acceptance rates.

3. What is your chance of acceptance if deferred?

   • If a school’s deferral rate is similar to or lower than its Early acceptance rate, deferred students have a strong chance in Regular Decision.

   • If deferred, you should take additional action to appeal your case.

Post-Affirmative Action: How Schools Are Maintaining Diversity

• QuestBridge

• First-Generation Admissions

Since universities are actively considering these factors, if you qualify, be sure to take advantage of these opportunities when applying.

Returning to Pre-Pandemic Admissions Standards

• With the reinstatement of SAT/ACT requirements, the admissions landscape is returning to pre-pandemic norms.

• As a result, Early application numbers and acceptance rates will stabilize, aligning with historical data.

• Keep these factors in mind as you prepare for college applications.

This concludes our analysis of Early admissions trends.

For further inquiries, please contact A-One Institute.

Thank you!